Market Wrap – 14th November 2011

November 14, 2011 Posted by Ian James

Ian James

Out of the 713 auctioned properties listed by the REIV, there were 323 sold. Nearly 20% were sold before and I would envisage that double that amount would have passed in and been negotiated after. This still goes down as sold at auction. In fact of the 12 auctions our team attended over the weekend, only 3 sold under the hammer, however, 9 still were listed as sold, as they were negotiated straight after the auction.

It is certainly shaping up as a negotiators market.

Here are some of the properties that we visited over the weekend.

19 Northcote Rd, Northcote

19 Northcote Road Northcote was quoted at $820k – 900k It opened at $820k and was announced on the market at 900k. in total 7 bidders fought out the auction and the property sold for $961k

22 Somerset St Richmond. This was the street that hosted a shooting earlier this year. In fact the shooting occurred just outside this property. It was quoted 650K – 690k. The property opened on genuine bid at $670k with steady but small bidding increments was put on the market at $776k and sold $785k there were five bidders.

2/16 Woornack Road Carnegie .Quoted at $590k – $630k it was opened at $570k with a VB. Small and slow bidding until 1st break at $620k
Not on the market. Slow bidding until $630k and second break.
Whilst still not on the market, the bidding continued and just under $650k it was finally announced on the market. The property sold under the hammer for $656k. There were approx. 6 bidders.

Next week the REIV is expecting 815 auctions next weekend and over 1000 the following.

Ian James
Director
JPP Buyer Advocates

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Markets don’t change overnight

November 7, 2011 Posted by Ian James

Ian James

According to the REIV the clearance rate this weekend is 52% compared to 50% (adjusted) last weekend and 59 per cent for this weekend last year.

There have been 498 auctions reported of which 258 sold and 240 passed in, 151 of those on a vendors bid. It does seem not everyone lost money at the races, nor does it seem the entire market turned on its head due to the Reserve Bank’s interest rate change this week.

We can assume the numbers of auctions will continue to rise throughout November. The REIV is estimating approximately 2600 auctions during this period.

There were many very quiet auctions this week where the only sounds heard were from auctioneers calling out vendor bids. But not all auctions went this way. There was an outstanding result at 17 Hedderwick Street, Essendon which achieved a final result of $2,300,000

There were also noticeable increases in most open for inspection numbers this week. If you don’t buy in the next 6 weeks, there will be little on offer until February.

For those who haven’t lost their shirt at the races, now is a good time to purchase property. If you need to secure a property before the end of the year, please call our office for an appointment with one of our experienced and fully licensed advocates.
Ian James
Director
JPP Buyer Advocates

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Interest Rates vs Property Price

November 7, 2011 Posted by Ian James

Ian James

Bill Evans, chief economist for Westpac, predicted around the middle of the year that the next interest rate move would be down. Media and financial experts alike, scoffed at this notion as a publicity stunt, or a foolish attempt at putting pressure on the Reserve Bank to do just that. But he was RIGHT. “The catalyst for the first rate cut is likely to be associated with these European convulsions, but further cuts will be driven by the combined negative impact of European events on confidence and specific domestic issues,” he said on July 15, referring to the “fragile consumer”.

Dr Evans has also said that domestic interest rates are fundamentally too high. He predicts a full 100 basis points drop through 2012.

Considering he has got it right so far, let’s assume his predictions continue to be accurate and that sometime during 2012 we won’t be paying 7% interest on our home loans but 6%.

Owner occupiers will be able to spend a little over 15% more on their homes and still have the same repayments as they do when paying 7% interest. In other words interest only repayments on a $500,000 at 7% would equal $35,000p.a. Interest only repayments on $583,000 at 6% equals $35,000p.a.

When we look at the investors’ negative gearing model, the equations become in more fascinating. Shortfall on a $600,000 property that rents out for $500 per week 50 weeks of the year, and taking into account a relatively high income tax deduction, the shortfall in the first year goes from about $200 per week to about $120 per week. Interest repayment is the single largest expense for direct property investment.

If owner occupiers are going to be able to pay more for no greater cost and more people can afford to invest in direct property, there will not be enough supply to satisfy the demand. At the moment total supply outstrips total demand and therefore the average property price for “average” property in Melbourne has fallen about 5% from its peak in April last year.

If Dr Evans is correct we would assume at least a 6- 8% increase in “average” property prices next year and the stand out properties will probably jump up 10 – 12% from their lowest point now. This will take the whole year to occur because even if Dr Evans is correct the RBA is unlikely to drop all 100 basis points in February!!

The media has been strongly focused on “massive” price drops in our property markets. They will quote anyone who says property prices will drop by 40%. The claim that our property prices will follow the United States markets shows us absolutely that they have no idea what they are talking about. The markets could not be fundamentally more different. And the fact that we have a total property shortage, a growing economy, growing population and such affordable property means that there will need to be a price correction. AND IT WILL NOT BE DOWN – IT WILL BE UP.

Now and the first quarter of next year will be the best time to buy property in the strongest market in Australia. The best suburbs in Melbourne will most likely show a tremendous appreciation over the next 3 – 5 years.

If you are considering a property purchase please come in and have a chat to one of our experienced advocates.

Ian James
Director
JPP Buyer Advocates

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Agents are on notice Lying will not be tolerated

October 31, 2011 Posted by Ian James

Ian James

After the recent court case involving an agent that lied to a prospective purchaser about having another offer when they did not, all the media is screaming for safeguards.

The safeguards are already in place. They are enshrined in law. In the same way anyone arrested has their rights explained to them, anyone who goes to court without counsel will have their “right to counsel” explained to them, ANYONE BUYING PROPERTY HAS THE RIGHT TO COUNSEL.

The only issue we have currently is that most of the public do not understand these rights. The government is too busy explaining how they will try to curb the enthusiasm of the selling agents in order to “make it fair” to the purchaser. In the current issue, the courts have ruled the agent lied. This should be frowned upon and should not occur, but if the purchaser had good counsel I have no doubt this case would never had occurred.

It is a brave selling agent that will take on an experienced buying agent on the strength of a throwaway line such as: “We have another offer – you will have to increase yours.” It is just too easy to debunk. This is very simple negotiation technique that any experienced buying or selling agent handles every day.

If the government is serious about making the playing field fair, why not simply introduce a system whereby the purchaser is told they have a right to an advocate. We have introduced three day cooling off periods to allow a purchaser time to get legal advice on the contract, but even this is so easy for an experienced agent to work an inexperienced purchaser around. For instance, if you, a purchaser, puts a written offer on the table on Monday afternoon, and the vendors agent says he will speak to the vendor that evening. On Tuesday afternoon the agent thanks you for your offer but says it is a little low, but the vendor is considering it. He may then explain that his company policy is to follow up all other prospective purchasers over the next 24 hours.

On Wednesday evening the agent talks to you and says they have interest from another party who are coming into the office in the morning. However, if they do not offer above your offer then the vendor has agreed to sell the property to you. Late Thursday afternoon the vendors’ agent calls the purchaser and says the vendor will sign the documents tonight and that a deal has been agreed to.

On Friday morning you receive a call from the agent saying the deal is done. Knowing that you have a three day cooling off period, you send the signed documents to your solicitor for checking. You also decide to get a building inspection as the renovations to the home do not seem to have the correct documentation. He now explains to you that there is a covenant on the property that will not allow you to use the land in the way you wanted, eg putting a granny flat in the back because there is an easement running through the centre of the block.

HE ALSO EXPLAINS THAT YOUR THREE DAY COOLING OFF PERIOD HAS ALREADY EXPIRED.

The cooling off period begins from the time of offer not acceptance. The agent may have purposely extended the time of the negotiations that may be just how they played out. Either way you are stuck with the deal whether you like it or not.

Any reasonable buying agent would have never allowed this to occur. Firstly, I would have had the documents checked on the first day of offer. Secondly, we would have immediately rescinded our offer and either ordered a building inspection report or made another offer with a condition that allowed us to withdraw from the contract if the building inspection report was unsatisfactory. Again, this is very basic negotiation technique.

The State Government has little or no interest in this however. The more money a purchaser pays for a property, the more money goes into state coffers. The State government is reliant on its revenue from Stamp Duty. The Government needs to let the purchasing public know it has options. A purchaser should not be allowed to sign an offer without having been warned to get professional Real Estate advice.

After the events this week, everyone is asking for safeguards. They already exist. If you are paying a licensed real estate agent, then they must be working for you!! This is law. If you are not paying them for their advice then they can be taking money from anyone, including the vendor.

You should ask you state member of parliament to have compulsory warnings added to contracts of sale of land. “All purchasers should seek counsel from a registered qualified licensed real estate agent who is acting in their interests”

Ian James
Director JPP Buyer Advocates

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Punters Taking a Bet on Real Estate – The Race is on to Purchase Prior to Christmas

October 31, 2011 Posted by Catherine Cashmore

Catherine Cashmore

With over 350,000 spectators expected to make their way to the Spring Carnival over the weekend, I didn’t expect to see huge crowds attending the auctions, however even though the housing market has taken a knock over the last few months, there is clearly enough people at least ‘monitoring’ the market to attract groups of buyers to the auctions who haven’t been deterred by financial jitters.

It’s fair to say those vendors who need to sell, have now accepted our market is constrained by sentiment and questions of affordability; and therefore most have reduced expectation to the level needed to ‘do the deal’. There is also the added pressure of stock in the inner and middle rings dropping markedly in comparison to last year, and the knowledge that if you don’t take advantage of what’s on offer now; you can guarantee there won’t be many more chances until we kick off again after Christmas – (which essentially means February.) Therefore unlike last weekend, where many were hanging back with a preference for after auction negotiation, today’s results were producing at least a few competitive sales – albeit with slow starts.

The major consensus of opinion is that they’ll be an interest rate drop on Tuesday – so confident is the call, you’d think the reserve bank had already announced it in advance! However; whether there is or not, is irrelevant because it’s not likely to have any noticeable effect on housing market prices – at least not in the short term. Interest rate movements generally have repercussions on the market when they shift in a succession of ‘short sharp shocks’ which kick buyers into action – a minor alteration to interest rates one way or the other is unlikely to have this effect. It does, however, get people thinking when there is a change to the RBA bias, but whilst the priority is focused on saving and not spending, it’s unlikely this trend will change overnight. Therefore although a cut will be a welcome breather for mortgage holders, small business, and retail traders, it’s not going to make much of an inroad into the current real estate domain.

There are only a few more weeks left for new stock to come onto the market before the agents take their annual break – especially if it’s an auction sale. Auctioneers are warning bidders they only have 6 weeks left to purchase prior to Christmas. This line was repeated more than once during the weekend’s preambles. However at the moment it’s full steam ahead and impossible to paint the market one colour – it’s a mixed bag. While some suburbs have slumped and continue to do so, others have experienced healthy gains and are showing signs of recovery. The opportunists and active investors still have time to take advantage of the lingering listings and odd distressed vendor if they want to get a foot through the door prior to the New Year. There are a few bumper weekends left before we can take stock and benefit from a bit of hindsight over what’s been turbulent year – and not one many will hope to repeat in 2012. As for the clearance rate – another weekend of ordinary figures – 53% – however turnover holding steady with a total of 706 properties sold.

Passed in on a Vendor Bid

12/29b Hampden Rd, Armadale

12/29b Hampden Rd Armadale seemed to have all the ingredients to attract competition but the essential one – bidders! Quoted $550-$620K a decent sized crowd of 50 or so people turned out to watch this 2 bedroom Art Deco apartment go under the hammer. The rain had just stopped and therefore it was nice enough to stand outside and enjoy the show. A good pre-amble from Andrew James gave an upbeat review of the location – close to transport, shops and so forth. However none of this inspired. After failing to get an opening bid he kicked off with a vendor bid of $560K. A short trip to see the vendor and a warning that should he pass the apartment in without a genuine bid, buyers risked an ‘auction after the auction’ as no one would have right to exclusive negotiation still didn’t inspire. The property passed in on a vendor bid with a reserve of $640K. As is always the case these days, a fair few approached after the auction to ‘talk’, however no negotiation was concluded.

Sold under the hammer

49a Daley St, Bentleigh

Mortgagee auctions always gain attention with buyers generally expecting the reserve to be lower than would be the case should there be an emotional vendor. 49a Daley St, Bentleigh, was perfectly suited to attract a crowd – especially considering the location was a mere hop from Bentleigh’s shopping strip and train station. The home was suited to a range of buyers – downsizers, first home buyers, young couples- 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and no owner’s corp added to the attraction. The crowd attending was close to 100 – however I suspect many were neighbours. It had been quoted $580K+ however as with all the auctions today, the bidders weren’t eager to start. Eventually someone pitched in with a bid of $450K which didn’t impress the auctioneer who straight away came over the top with a vendor bid of $520K. Two buyers took the fore, and after a series of tit for tat bids the property reached its reserve of $580K. The hammer finally went down at $605K which represented fair market for a mortgagee sale.

‘Flew’ selling under the hammer

2/33 Toolambool, Carnegie

2/33 Toolambool in Carnegie was set up to attract the largest crowd of the day. Perfectly placed for first home buyers and investors and quoted in the low $300K– a good sized one bedroom with the unusual feature of a large courtyard which is fairly unique for this type of property. A crowd of over 100 attended and the auctioneer seemed to have no doubt there was healthy interest. However it didn’t stop the need for a vendor bid to kick things off which he pitched at $290K. Six bidders attended this auction and in no time at all it had reached its reserve of $335K. The hammer went down at $353,000 which again represented fair market value for what was on offer.

Sold under the hammer

39 Belsize Ave, Carnegie

The prize for the best development/renovation project of the day had to go to 39 Belsize Av, Carnegie – an old Edwardian house on a block of land measuring 679 sqm with an 18m frontage. Around 30 people showed up to watch the auctioneer put on a show. However, quoted at $760,000 – $840,000, no one gave any initial interest and the auctioneer was forced to open on a vendor bid of $760K. Met with further silence, the auctioneer took his half time break and returned to place a second vendor bid of $780K. It looked as if the home may pass in however one of the agents in the crowd had worked his magic on a budding bidder and managed to inspire the confidence needed to kick in with a rise of 10K. This created a small snowball effect and competition eventuated between two bidders. The property was announced on the market at $820K, but didn’t sell until it reached a healthy $853,500.

Passed in – not unexpectedly – on a Vendor Bid

54 Hanby St, Brighton

Finally 54 Hanby St Brighton made its auction debut today. Purchased only 3 years ago in 2008, the house offered all the right ingredients for a luxury lifestyle (theatre, gym, swimming pool, moments to the beach, huge land size etc etc). However today’s market isn’t favouring the luxury home market in Brighton and a bumper result wasn’t therefore expected. In front of a small crowd of around 30 people the auctioneers pre-amble didn’t trigger any bids. He was forced to open the auction with what he termed as a ‘modest’ vendor bid of $3,3Mil and after a short break inside, and another attempt to rally the crowd, he made a second vendor bid of $3.350Mil before passing the home in with an undisclosed reserve.

Catherine Cashmore

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